Transportation and Energy Systems in the U.S.

The objective of this paper is to assess, on the basis of a number of indicative examples, the time needed to build new and replace old transportation and energy systems, and their infrastructures. Most of the examples are taken from the United States, since the United States has been one of the few countries to experience most of the technological changes that occurred during the last 200 years. However, because most of these technological changes were subsequently disseminated throughout the world, the examples also indicate the dynamics of these processes elsewhere. Within the scope of this paper, the use of the term infrastructure is rather narrow, referring only to transportation and energy grids and networks, and other components of these two systems. These two systems are interesting because they played a crucial role in the economic and technological development process, are very capital intensive and, in general, have long lifetimes. The analysis of the historical development of these two systems will include a quantitative description of performance improvement, the general evolution of a particular infrastructure, and the replacement of old by new technologies and infrastructures in terms of their relative market shares. We use the term performance as a multidimensional concept (i.e., as a vector rather than a scalar indicator) and, where appropriate, measure the size of an infrastructure as a function of time. The first section describes the evolution of transport system and their related infrastructures. The analysis starts, somewhat unconventionally, with the youngest technologies, aircraft and airways, and ends with the oldest transport networks -- canals and waterways. The second section describes the evolution of energy consumption and pipelines as an example of dedicated transport infrastructures

A social contract for sustainability

The social contract for the transformation to a sustainable society proposed by the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) combines responsibility towards future generations with a culture of democratic participation. Within the transformation towards sustainability climate protection has particular significance, for without abatement of anthropogenic climate change, the natural life-support systems of present and future generations are at risk. A primary goal for the transformation fields energy and urbanisation is therefore to switch to a development pathway with no greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel use, as far as possible, by mid-century, when the world's population is expected to have increased to some 9 billion people. A climate-friendly development pathway is also required for our land-use systems. To that end, a regulatory framework that is appropriate to deal with these challenges is required; this should be put in place following a broad social dialogue, leading to a consensus on the core issues facing society. In short, a social contract for sustainability is needed. In this symbolic agreement, individuals and civil society groups, governments and the international community, business and science pledge to take on shared responsibility for protecting natural life-support systems through agreements on the conservation of global commons. A key element of this social contract is the "proactive state" with greatly extended participation by citizens

Dynamics of Change and Long Waves

During the last five years IIASA has played an important role in reviving the long wave debate which has almost been forgotten since the works of Kondratieff, Schumpeter and others. IIASA initiated contacts among the various groups through out the world working in this area and organized four international conferences that addressed the questions of long term technological changes and economic growth. Although IIASA did not have a project on this specific topic a number of research activities within the Technology, Economy and Society (TES) Program are very closely related to the issues of long term development and cyclical phenomena. This paper analyzes the process of technological change over the last two hundred years from the perspective of structural transformations in energy, transport and infrastructures as they are related to the fluctuations in long- term development. It shows that both the diffusion of new technologies and the periods of accelerated economic growth are not homogeneously distributed in time but rather in recurring clusters. It is possible to distinguish periods of structural changes that are accompanied by the saturation of old, and the introduction of new, technologies and periods of economic expansion and widespread diffusion of new technologies. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the third long wave meeting which was jointly organized by IIASA and CRPEE -- Faculte de Droit et des Sciences Economiques, University of Montpellier, France

The Automotive Road to Technological Change: Diffusion of the Automobile as a Process of Technological Substitution

Advancement of the motor vehicle and its production methods is analyzed as a process of technological change. In a broader context, motor vehicles evolved as an integral component of road transport through a series of interlaced substitutions of old by new technologies. Building on a large number of studies that described technological substitution processes, first it is shown how new energy forms replaced their predecessors and how the old marine transport technologies were substituted by new ones. These examples constitute some of the oldest, empirically documented technological changes and show that many events in the dynamics of energy substitution and marine transport are related to technological changes in road transport. It is shown that these substitution processes can be described by simple rules and that the replacement of old by new technologies in the energy and transport systems lasted about 80 years. The technological changes within road transport, however, were more rapid. Replacement of horses by automobiles and older by newer generations of motor vehicles and production methods lasted only a few decades in the United States. Thus, technological substitutions within the road transport system were considerably shorter than the expansion of railroads, surfaced roads, all road vehicles together, and the more recent expansion of air transport

Energy for a sustainable future

This year, in September, world leaders will meet at the United Nations to assess progress on the Millennium Development Goals and to chart a course of action for the period leading up to the agreed MDG deadline of 2015. Later in the year, government delegations will gather in Mexico to continue the process of working towards a comprehensive, robust and ambitious climate change agreement. Energy lies at the heart of both of these efforts. The decisions we take today on how we produce, consume and distribute energy will profoundly influence our ability to eradicate poverty and respond effectively to climate change. Addressing these challenges is beyond the reach of governments alone. It will take the active engagement of all sectors of society: the private sector; local communities and civil society; international organizations and the world of academia and research. To that end, in 2009 I established a high-level Advisory Group on Energy and Climate Change, chaired by Kandeh Yumkella, Director-General of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). Comprising representatives from business, the United Nations system and research institutions, its mandate was to provide recommendations on energy issues in the context of climate change and sustainable development. The Group also examined the role the United Nations system could play in achieving internationally-agreed climate goals. The Advisory Group has identified two priorities - improving energy access and strengthening energy efficiency - as key areas for enhanced effort and international cooperation. Expanding access to affordable, clean energy is critical for realizing the MDGs and enabling sustainable development across much of the globe. Improving energy efficiency is paramount if we are to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It can also support market competitiveness and green innovation

Patterns of Change: Technological Substitution and Long Waves in the United States

Economic development and the advancement of technology is presented as a process of substituting old forms of satisfying human needs by new ones or, more precisely, as a sequence of such substitutions. The examples, reconstructed from historical records. describe the quantitative, technological changes in energy consumption, steel production and merchant marine in the United States. Logistic substitution analysis is used to capture the dynamics and regularity of these technological changes. It is shown that technological substitution analysis describes fundamental structural changes that lead to new economic patterns and forms. The emerging patterns of technological and economic changes during the last two to three centuries are shown to portray periodic recurrences at intervals of about half a century. In this sense, the technological substitution processes are related to the long swings in economic development because they identify and describe major and periodic fluctuations in tire historical rate of technological change and accordingly also the secular changes in the rate of economic growth. A phenomenological approach is adopted to indicate the evidence for the invariance and logical order in the sequence of technological changes and long wave fluctuations

Energy gases: The methane age and beyond

The combustion of fossil fuels results in the emissions of gases and pollutants that produce adverse ecological effects. Evidence is also accumulating that suggest they may also cause global climate change. The combustion gases that are connected with global climate change are primarily carbon dioxide (CO2) and to a lesser degree methane (CH4). All of these gases already occur in low concentrations in the atmosphere and, in fact, together with other greenhouse gases, such as water vapor, have made the earth habitable. The risk, however, is that the additional emissions of greenhouse gases associated with energy-use and other human activities are rapidly increasing the atmospheric concentrations of these gases and may therefore lead to an additional global warming during the next century. While the greenhouse gases that result from energy-use are the most important cause of these concerns, the energy gases also offer a potential solution to this problem. Natural gas consists mostly of methane and is a very potent greenhouse gas if released into the atmosphere, but after combustion occurs, the amount of carbon dioxide resulting is much smaller per unit primary energy in comparison to other fossil energy sources. Natural gas emits roughly one-half of the carbon dioxide in comparison to coal for the equal amount of energy. Thus, a possible shift to a methane economy during the next decades offers a genuine mitigation strategy. Beyond that, natural gas could pave the way for more environmentally compatible energy systems of the distant future that could use hydrogen and electricity, both of which are carbon-free energy carriers, that could be produced by non-fossil sources of primary energy. This transition to the methane age and beyond to carbon-free energy systems would enhance the reduction of other adverse impacts on the environment by human activities. In fact, carbon dioxide emissions represent the largest mass flow of waste in comparison to all other anthropogenic activities. Current energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are in the order of 6 gigatons of carbon (GtC) or more than 20 GtCO2. This is more than 20 times larger than, for example, global steel production of about 700 megatons (Mt). Decarbonization is a notion that denotes reduction of carbon dioxide emissions per unit primary energy and unit economic activity, and dematerialization refers to the reduction of materials used per unit economic activity. Decarbonization would also help reduce the emission of other energy pollutants and wastes, and it would also enhance the dematerialization in general. Other measures that would lead to decarbonization, in addition to a shift to methane economy, include efficiency improvements and energy conservation, carbon removal and storage or a shift to carbon-free sources of energy, such as solar and nuclear energy